Christianity For The Technically Inclined: Risk Assessment, Probability And Prophecy -- By: James Dietz

Journal: Global Journal of Classical Theology
Volume: GJCT 04:2 (Jun 2004)
Article: Christianity For The Technically Inclined: Risk Assessment, Probability And Prophecy
Author: James Dietz


Christianity For The Technically Inclined:
Risk Assessment, Probability And Prophecy

James Dietz

Every day our physical safety is affected by the probability of failures associated with machines that we use. Designers of machines for use with the public follow probabilistic approaches in determining whether a machine is safe to use. If we accept this as a rational approach to self-preservation (and we do), then it seems reasonable to apply the same probabilistic criteria to the analysis of the Bible. 1

Risk Assessment And Machines

An example of public safety and the consequences of machine failure comes from the use of public transportation, in particular trains and subways. In modern railroading, equipment on the trains and equipment on the ground communicate to form a sophisticated collision avoidance system. If these systems fail to perform their function, trains can collide with deadly consequences.

Elements of these sorts of collision avoidance systems (called signaling in railroad jargon) date back to 1829. At that time, hand signals, flags, and lanterns were used on the B & O Railroad.2 As time has advanced, machines have taken the place of humans in railroad signaling. Not only have machines replaced humans, but also the machines themselves have become complex.

When everything in a signaling system is working correctly, trains do not collide. Designers of signaling systems must also consider what happens when things break. One approach to this is to begin by making a list of every possible failure that can occur. Then, for every failure, assess two things. First, assess the severity of the consequences of the failure. Second, assess the probability of the occurrence of the failure. With these two pieces of information, one then determines whether the risk associated with each failure is acceptable or whether the machine must be re-designed in some way.3

The basic process is a formalized method of doing that which we do every day. We look at the consequences or rewards of a situation and evaluate the probability of occurrence. Consider the case where you spot a one hundred dollar bill in the middle of a highway. One considers the reward ($100) and the probability of success (no cars are in sight). As the reward changes (say $1) or the probability of success changes (rush hour traffic), one makes a different evaluation as to whether to run into the street.

The basic process for our railway failure analysis is illustrated in the table below (See Appendix II for a more detailed view). Find the column for the severity, find the row for the frequency, and as...

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