Journal: Journal of Discipleship and Family Ministry
Volume: JDFM 03:2 (Spring 2013)
Article: Research Brief And Editorial: The Infamous Evangelical Dropout Statistic: Where It Came From And Why It’s A Problem
Author: Timothy Paul Jones

JDFM 3:2 (Spring 2013) p. 2

Research Brief And Editorial:
The Infamous Evangelical Dropout Statistic: Where It Came From And Why It’s A Problem1

Timothy Paul Jones

Timothy Paul Jones (Ph.D., The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary) is professor of leadership and church ministries at Southern Seminary. He serves in the SojournKids ministry at Sojourn Community Church in Louisville, Kentucky. He is the author or coauthor of more than a dozen books, including the award-winning Christian History Made Easy and the CBA bestseller The Da Vinci Codebreaker. He enjoys hiking, playing board games with his family, drinking French-pressed coffee, and watching Star Wars movies.

“So tell me,” I ask, “why do you want to move your church toward a family ministry model?”

These two ministry leaders that I’m meeting at the coffee shop are good people. Both are passionate about the gospel, and they long to be faithful to Scripture. Their church has asked me to partner with the staff to help them to minister more effectively to families.

“Well,” the pastor begins, “nine out of ten kids are dropping out of church after they graduate, aren’t they? Evidently, what we’re doing isn’t working.”

“Mm-hmm,” the children’s director nods. “Eighty-eight percent is what they said at the conference. We just want to do so much better than that.”

“Is your church actually losing that many?” I ask.

Both of them look at each other before shrugging.

“I—I don’t really know,” the pastor replies. “Most of the youth, we don’t see after they graduate. Sometimes that’s because they’re involved in another church, I guess. We’ve never done a survey.”

The children’s director nods and continues, “What we thought is that, if we had some programs to teach parents how to grow their kids spiritually, we could stop the dropouts.”

“I want to help your church, and I will do everything in my power to help,” I say. “But first, I’m going to ask you to rethink your reasons for considering these changes—because the problem you think is the problem is probably not the problem at all.”

Here’s why these two ministry leaders and many others like them need to rethink their motivations: The nine-out-of-ten dropout number isn’t true. It never was true, and it still isn’t--yet many church leaders still believe it. That’s why I’m inviting you to take a trip with me to the origins of this number and to look together at why it’s long past time to lay this misunderstanding to rest.

Gut Feelings And Wild Guesses...

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